Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction
(Book)

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Average Rating
Published
New York : Crown Publishers, [2015].
Edition
First edition.
Status
Rapid City Public Library - Business & Economics - Adult
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS 303.49 TET
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More Details

Published
New York : Crown Publishers, [2015].
Format
Book
Edition
First edition.
Physical Desc
340 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
Language
English

Notes

Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index.
Description
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--

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Citations

APA Citation, 7th Edition (style guide)

Tetlock, P. E. 1., & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction (First edition.). Crown Publishers.

Chicago / Turabian - Author Date Citation, 17th Edition (style guide)

Tetlock, Philip E. 1954- and Dan Gardner. 2015. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown Publishers.

Chicago / Turabian - Humanities (Notes and Bibliography) Citation, 17th Edition (style guide)

Tetlock, Philip E. 1954- and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Crown Publishers, 2015.

MLA Citation, 9th Edition (style guide)

Tetlock, Philip E. 1954-, and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction First edition., Crown Publishers, 2015.

Note! Citations contain only title, author, edition, publisher, and year published. Citations should be used as a guideline and should be double checked for accuracy. Citation formats are based on standards as of August 2021.